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Methodology for probabilistic tsunami-triggered oil spill fire hazard assessment based on Natech cascading disaster modeling

Tomoaki Nishino Orcid Logo, Takuya Miyashita Orcid Logo, Nobuhito Mori

Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Volume: 242, Start page: 109789

Swansea University Author: Nobuhito Mori

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DOI (Published version): 10.1016/j.ress.2023.109789

Abstract

A novel modeling methodology is presented for cascading disasters triggered by tsunami hazards considering uncertainties. The proposed methodology focuses on tsunami-triggered oil spills and subsequent fires, a type of natural hazard-triggered technological (Natech) event. The methodology numericall...

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Published in: Reliability Engineering & System Safety
ISSN: 0951-8320
Published: Elsevier BV 2024
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa64937
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spelling v2 64937 2023-11-08 Methodology for probabilistic tsunami-triggered oil spill fire hazard assessment based on Natech cascading disaster modeling 2cab1605807300324c85b4ec1a1a93c6 Nobuhito Mori Nobuhito Mori true false 2023-11-08 FGSEN A novel modeling methodology is presented for cascading disasters triggered by tsunami hazards considering uncertainties. The proposed methodology focuses on tsunami-triggered oil spills and subsequent fires, a type of natural hazard-triggered technological (Natech) event. The methodology numerically simulates the time-varying behavior of tsunami-triggered oil spill fires for numerous stochastically generated scenarios and performs a probabilistic mapping of the maximum radiative heat flux as a quantitative measure of the fire hazard. To enable these assessments, probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments are extended to include the tsunami-induced movement of oil storage tanks, resulting oil spills, tsunami-driven oil fire spread, and thermal radiation from fires. The uncertainty of the earthquake fault slip distribution, oil filling level of storage tanks, and fire starting time and position is incorporated into the new assessments. To demonstrate the methodology, a realistic case study is conducted for a coastal petrochemical industrial park in Japan conditioned on possible offshore moment magnitude 9.1 earthquakes. Contrary to typical tsunami direct impact assessments, the results highlight the cascading effects of tsunamis and large variability in key output variables concerning oil spills and fires. This indicates that the methodology is useful for deepening stakeholders’ understanding of tsunami-triggered cascading disasters and improving risk reduction plans. Journal Article Reliability Engineering &amp; System Safety 242 109789 Elsevier BV 0951-8320 Natech, Emerging risk, Tsunami fire, Oil spill fire, Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA), Uncertainty 28 2 2024 2024-02-28 10.1016/j.ress.2023.109789 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2023.109789 COLLEGE NANME Science and Engineering - Faculty COLLEGE CODE FGSEN Swansea University This work was partially supported by the Center Research (2022A-01) funded by the Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, and by the Core-to-Core Collaborative Research Program (2023-K-1-2-8) of the Earthquake Research Institute at The University of Tokyo, and the Disaster Prevention Research Institute at Kyoto University, funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT) of Japan. 2023-12-04T17:43:10.8102413 2023-11-08T09:23:44.6700534 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Engineering and Applied Sciences - Uncategorised Tomoaki Nishino 0000-0003-1298-6973 1 Takuya Miyashita 0000-0002-3196-2726 2 Nobuhito Mori 3 64937__29204__c9fe7199e24c494aa6b3475933f1643d.pdf 64937.VOR.pdf 2023-12-04T17:39:28.4723858 Output 29651876 application/pdf Version of Record true © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. Distributed under the terms of a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 License (CC BY-NC 4.0). true eng https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
title Methodology for probabilistic tsunami-triggered oil spill fire hazard assessment based on Natech cascading disaster modeling
spellingShingle Methodology for probabilistic tsunami-triggered oil spill fire hazard assessment based on Natech cascading disaster modeling
Nobuhito Mori
title_short Methodology for probabilistic tsunami-triggered oil spill fire hazard assessment based on Natech cascading disaster modeling
title_full Methodology for probabilistic tsunami-triggered oil spill fire hazard assessment based on Natech cascading disaster modeling
title_fullStr Methodology for probabilistic tsunami-triggered oil spill fire hazard assessment based on Natech cascading disaster modeling
title_full_unstemmed Methodology for probabilistic tsunami-triggered oil spill fire hazard assessment based on Natech cascading disaster modeling
title_sort Methodology for probabilistic tsunami-triggered oil spill fire hazard assessment based on Natech cascading disaster modeling
author_id_str_mv 2cab1605807300324c85b4ec1a1a93c6
author_id_fullname_str_mv 2cab1605807300324c85b4ec1a1a93c6_***_Nobuhito Mori
author Nobuhito Mori
author2 Tomoaki Nishino
Takuya Miyashita
Nobuhito Mori
format Journal article
container_title Reliability Engineering &amp; System Safety
container_volume 242
container_start_page 109789
publishDate 2024
institution Swansea University
issn 0951-8320
doi_str_mv 10.1016/j.ress.2023.109789
publisher Elsevier BV
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
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hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
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url http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2023.109789
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description A novel modeling methodology is presented for cascading disasters triggered by tsunami hazards considering uncertainties. The proposed methodology focuses on tsunami-triggered oil spills and subsequent fires, a type of natural hazard-triggered technological (Natech) event. The methodology numerically simulates the time-varying behavior of tsunami-triggered oil spill fires for numerous stochastically generated scenarios and performs a probabilistic mapping of the maximum radiative heat flux as a quantitative measure of the fire hazard. To enable these assessments, probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments are extended to include the tsunami-induced movement of oil storage tanks, resulting oil spills, tsunami-driven oil fire spread, and thermal radiation from fires. The uncertainty of the earthquake fault slip distribution, oil filling level of storage tanks, and fire starting time and position is incorporated into the new assessments. To demonstrate the methodology, a realistic case study is conducted for a coastal petrochemical industrial park in Japan conditioned on possible offshore moment magnitude 9.1 earthquakes. Contrary to typical tsunami direct impact assessments, the results highlight the cascading effects of tsunamis and large variability in key output variables concerning oil spills and fires. This indicates that the methodology is useful for deepening stakeholders’ understanding of tsunami-triggered cascading disasters and improving risk reduction plans.
published_date 2024-02-28T17:43:11Z
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