Global rise in forest fire emissions linked to climate change in the extratropics

Jones, Matthew W; Veraverbeke, Sander; Andela, Niels; Doerr, Stefan; Kolden, Crystal; Mataveli, Guilherme; Pettinari, M Lucrecia; Quéré, Corinne Le; Rosan, Thais M; van, Guido R; Wees, Dave van; Abatzoglou, John T

doi:10.1126/science.adl5889

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Global rise in forest fire emissions linked to climate change in the extratropics

Matthew W Jones

, Sander Veraverbeke

, Niels Andela

, Stefan Doerr

, Crystal Kolden

, Guilherme Mataveli

, M Lucrecia Pettinari

, Corinne Le Quéré

, Thais M Rosan

, Guido R van der Werf

, Dave van Wees

, John T Abatzoglou

Science, Volume: 386, Issue: 6719, Start page: eadl5889

Swansea University Author: Stefan Doerr

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Author accepted manuscript document released under the terms of a Creative Commons CC BY licence using the Swansea University Research Publications Policy (rights retention).
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DOI (Published version): 10.1126/science.adl5889

Abstract

Climate change increases fire-favorable weather in forests, but fire trends are also affected by multiple other controlling factors that are difficult to untangle. We use machine learning to systematically group forest ecoregions into 12 global forest pyromes, with each showing distinct sensitivitie...

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Published in:	Science
ISSN:	0036-8075 1095-9203
Published:	American Association for the Advancement of Science 2024
Online Access:	Check full text
URI:	https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa68121

first_indexed	2024-10-31T10:42:29Z
last_indexed	2025-05-09T06:59:50Z
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spelling	2025-05-08T16:23:03.4448638 v2 68121 2024-10-31 Global rise in forest fire emissions linked to climate change in the extratropics 575eb5094f2328249328b3e43deb5088 0000-0002-8700-9002 Stefan Doerr Stefan Doerr true false 2024-10-31 BGPS Climate change increases fire-favorable weather in forests, but fire trends are also affected by multiple other controlling factors that are difficult to untangle. We use machine learning to systematically group forest ecoregions into 12 global forest pyromes, with each showing distinct sensitivities to climatic, human, and vegetation controls. This delineation revealed that rapidly increasing forest fire emissions in extratropical pyromes, linked to climate change, offset declining emissions in tropical pyromes during 2001 to 2023. Annual emissions tripled in one extratropical pyrome due to increases in fire-favorable weather, compounded by increased forest cover and productivity. This contributed to a 60% increase in forest fire carbon emissions from forest ecoregions globally. Our results highlight the increasing vulnerability of forests and their carbon stocks to fire disturbance under climate change. Journal Article Science 386 6719 eadl5889 American Association for the Advancement of Science 0036-8075 1095-9203 18 10 2024 2024-10-18 10.1126/science.adl5889 COLLEGE NANME Biosciences Geography and Physics School COLLEGE CODE BGPS Swansea University Not Required This work was funded by the following: UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) grant NE/V01417X/1 (M.W.J.); European Commission (E.C.) Horizon 2020 (H2020) project VERIFY grant 776810 (M.W.J.); São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) grants 2019/25701-8, 2020/15230-5 and 2023/03206-0 (G.M.); EC H2020 project FirEURisk grant no. 101003890 (S.H.D., M.L.P.); NERC project UK-FDRS grant NE/T003553/1 (S.H.D.); European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) FireCCI project contract no. 4000126706/19/I-NB (MLP); Royal Society grant RP\R1\191063 (C.L.Q.); National Science Foundation grant OAI-2019762 (JTA). 2025-05-08T16:23:03.4448638 2024-10-31T10:13:23.7160761 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography Matthew W Jones 0000-0003-3480-7980 1 Sander Veraverbeke 0000-0003-1362-5125 2 Niels Andela 0000-0002-8241-6143 3 Stefan Doerr 0000-0002-8700-9002 4 Crystal Kolden 0000-0001-7093-4552 5 Guilherme Mataveli 0000-0002-4645-0117 6 M Lucrecia Pettinari 0000-0002-7472-4373 7 Corinne Le Quéré 0000-0003-2319-0452 8 Thais M Rosan 0000-0003-0155-1739 9 Guido R van der Werf 0000-0001-9042-8630 10 Dave van Wees 0000-0001-5565-7155 11 John T Abatzoglou 0000-0001-7599-9750 12 68121__32871__b2c2960951f64a31a311897b85aca2ab.pdf 68121.AAM.pdf 2024-11-07T11:29:19.2092244 Output 4172813 application/pdf Accepted Manuscript true Author accepted manuscript document released under the terms of a Creative Commons CC BY licence using the Swansea University Research Publications Policy (rights retention). true eng https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title	Global rise in forest fire emissions linked to climate change in the extratropics
spellingShingle	Global rise in forest fire emissions linked to climate change in the extratropics Stefan Doerr
title_short	Global rise in forest fire emissions linked to climate change in the extratropics
title_full	Global rise in forest fire emissions linked to climate change in the extratropics
title_fullStr	Global rise in forest fire emissions linked to climate change in the extratropics
title_full_unstemmed	Global rise in forest fire emissions linked to climate change in the extratropics
title_sort	Global rise in forest fire emissions linked to climate change in the extratropics
author_id_str_mv	575eb5094f2328249328b3e43deb5088
author_id_fullname_str_mv	575eb5094f2328249328b3e43deb5088_***_Stefan Doerr
author	Stefan Doerr
author2	Matthew W Jones Sander Veraverbeke Niels Andela Stefan Doerr Crystal Kolden Guilherme Mataveli M Lucrecia Pettinari Corinne Le Quéré Thais M Rosan Guido R van der Werf Dave van Wees John T Abatzoglou
format	Journal article
container_title	Science
container_volume	386
container_issue	6719
container_start_page	eadl5889
publishDate	2024
institution	Swansea University
issn	0036-8075 1095-9203
doi_str_mv	10.1126/science.adl5889
publisher	American Association for the Advancement of Science
college_str	Faculty of Science and Engineering
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department_str	School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Biosciences, Geography and Physics - Geography
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description	Climate change increases fire-favorable weather in forests, but fire trends are also affected by multiple other controlling factors that are difficult to untangle. We use machine learning to systematically group forest ecoregions into 12 global forest pyromes, with each showing distinct sensitivities to climatic, human, and vegetation controls. This delineation revealed that rapidly increasing forest fire emissions in extratropical pyromes, linked to climate change, offset declining emissions in tropical pyromes during 2001 to 2023. Annual emissions tripled in one extratropical pyrome due to increases in fire-favorable weather, compounded by increased forest cover and productivity. This contributed to a 60% increase in forest fire carbon emissions from forest ecoregions globally. Our results highlight the increasing vulnerability of forests and their carbon stocks to fire disturbance under climate change.
published_date	2024-10-18T05:17:09Z
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score	11.096892

Global rise in forest fire emissions linked to climate change in the extratropics

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