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A quantitative methodology for systemic impact assessment of cyber threats in connected vehicles

Don Jayaratne Orcid Logo, Qian Lu Orcid Logo, Abdur Rakib Orcid Logo, Muhamad Azfar Ramli Orcid Logo, Rakhi Manohar Mepparambath Orcid Logo, Siraj Shaikh Orcid Logo, Hoang Nguyen Orcid Logo

Computers & Security, Volume: 160, Start page: 104729

Swansea University Authors: Don Jayaratne Orcid Logo, Siraj Shaikh Orcid Logo, Hoang Nguyen Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1016/j.cose.2025.104729

Abstract

The increasing integration of digital technologies in connected vehicles introduces cybersecurity risks that extend beyond individual vehicles, with the potential to disrupt entire transportation systems. Current practice (e.g., ISO/SAE 21434 TARA) focuses on threat identification and qualitative im...

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Published in: Computers & Security
ISSN: 0167-4048 1872-6208
Published: Elsevier BV 2026
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa70806
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Current practice (e.g., ISO/SAE 21434 TARA) focuses on threat identification and qualitative impact ratings at the vehicle boundary, with limited systemic quantification. This study presents a systematic, simulation-based methodology for quantifying the systemic operational and safety impacts of cyber threats on connected vehicles, evaluating cascading effects across the transport network. Three representative scenarios are examined: (I) telematics-induced sudden braking causing a cascading collision, (II) remote disabling on a motorway (M25) segment, and (III) a compromised Roadside Unit (RSU) spoofing Variable Speed Limit (VSL) and phantom lane closure messages to connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). The results highlight the potential for cascading safety incidents and systemic operational degradation, as evidenced by the defined systemic operational and safety vectors, factors that are insufficiently addressed in the current scope of the ISO/SAE 21434 standard, which primarily focuses on individual vehicle-level threats. The findings underscore the need to incorporate systemic evaluation into existing frameworks to enhance cyber resilience across connected vehicle ecosystems. 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spelling 2025-11-19T11:11:46.0730344 v2 70806 2025-10-31 A quantitative methodology for systemic impact assessment of cyber threats in connected vehicles 187e2e9d4a5bec923bfadcc9313708dc 0000-0001-9493-5808 Don Jayaratne Don Jayaratne true false 50117e8faac2d0937989e14847105704 0000-0002-0726-3319 Siraj Shaikh Siraj Shaikh true false cb24d5c5080534dc5b5e3390f24dd422 0000-0003-0260-1697 Hoang Nguyen Hoang Nguyen true false 2025-10-31 MACS The increasing integration of digital technologies in connected vehicles introduces cybersecurity risks that extend beyond individual vehicles, with the potential to disrupt entire transportation systems. Current practice (e.g., ISO/SAE 21434 TARA) focuses on threat identification and qualitative impact ratings at the vehicle boundary, with limited systemic quantification. This study presents a systematic, simulation-based methodology for quantifying the systemic operational and safety impacts of cyber threats on connected vehicles, evaluating cascading effects across the transport network. Three representative scenarios are examined: (I) telematics-induced sudden braking causing a cascading collision, (II) remote disabling on a motorway (M25) segment, and (III) a compromised Roadside Unit (RSU) spoofing Variable Speed Limit (VSL) and phantom lane closure messages to connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). The results highlight the potential for cascading safety incidents and systemic operational degradation, as evidenced by the defined systemic operational and safety vectors, factors that are insufficiently addressed in the current scope of the ISO/SAE 21434 standard, which primarily focuses on individual vehicle-level threats. The findings underscore the need to incorporate systemic evaluation into existing frameworks to enhance cyber resilience across connected vehicle ecosystems. The framework complements ISO/SAE 21434 by supplying quantitative, reproducible evidence for the impact rating step at a systemic scale, reducing assessor subjectivity and supporting policy and operations, enabling more data-driven evaluations of systemic cyber risks. Journal Article Computers &amp; Security 160 104729 Elsevier BV 0167-4048 1872-6208 Connected Vehicles; Automotive Cybersecurity; Threat Analysis and Risk Assessment; Impact Assessment; Simulation 1 1 2026 2026-01-01 10.1016/j.cose.2025.104729 COLLEGE NANME Mathematics and Computer Science School COLLEGE CODE MACS Swansea University Another institution paid the OA fee This work was supported by Coventry University, UK and the A*STAR Research Attachment Programme (ARAP), Singapore. 2025-11-19T11:11:46.0730344 2025-10-31T14:08:18.9593610 Faculty of Science and Engineering School of Mathematics and Computer Science - Computer Science Don Jayaratne 0000-0001-9493-5808 1 Qian Lu 0000-0001-8235-853x 2 Abdur Rakib 0000-0001-5430-450x 3 Muhamad Azfar Ramli 0000-0002-6321-0828 4 Rakhi Manohar Mepparambath 0000-0003-3308-7838 5 Siraj Shaikh 0000-0002-0726-3319 6 Hoang Nguyen 0000-0003-0260-1697 7 70806__35660__96d536c5cf584d9ea2a8d0e4407c0559.pdf 70806.VoR.pdf 2025-11-19T10:58:38.8334251 Output 3796723 application/pdf Version of Record true © 2025 The Author(s). This is an open access article under the CC BY license. true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title A quantitative methodology for systemic impact assessment of cyber threats in connected vehicles
spellingShingle A quantitative methodology for systemic impact assessment of cyber threats in connected vehicles
Don Jayaratne
Siraj Shaikh
Hoang Nguyen
title_short A quantitative methodology for systemic impact assessment of cyber threats in connected vehicles
title_full A quantitative methodology for systemic impact assessment of cyber threats in connected vehicles
title_fullStr A quantitative methodology for systemic impact assessment of cyber threats in connected vehicles
title_full_unstemmed A quantitative methodology for systemic impact assessment of cyber threats in connected vehicles
title_sort A quantitative methodology for systemic impact assessment of cyber threats in connected vehicles
author_id_str_mv 187e2e9d4a5bec923bfadcc9313708dc
50117e8faac2d0937989e14847105704
cb24d5c5080534dc5b5e3390f24dd422
author_id_fullname_str_mv 187e2e9d4a5bec923bfadcc9313708dc_***_Don Jayaratne
50117e8faac2d0937989e14847105704_***_Siraj Shaikh
cb24d5c5080534dc5b5e3390f24dd422_***_Hoang Nguyen
author Don Jayaratne
Siraj Shaikh
Hoang Nguyen
author2 Don Jayaratne
Qian Lu
Abdur Rakib
Muhamad Azfar Ramli
Rakhi Manohar Mepparambath
Siraj Shaikh
Hoang Nguyen
format Journal article
container_title Computers &amp; Security
container_volume 160
container_start_page 104729
publishDate 2026
institution Swansea University
issn 0167-4048
1872-6208
doi_str_mv 10.1016/j.cose.2025.104729
publisher Elsevier BV
college_str Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofscienceandengineering
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Science and Engineering
department_str School of Mathematics and Computer Science - Computer Science{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Science and Engineering{{{_:::_}}}School of Mathematics and Computer Science - Computer Science
document_store_str 1
active_str 0
description The increasing integration of digital technologies in connected vehicles introduces cybersecurity risks that extend beyond individual vehicles, with the potential to disrupt entire transportation systems. Current practice (e.g., ISO/SAE 21434 TARA) focuses on threat identification and qualitative impact ratings at the vehicle boundary, with limited systemic quantification. This study presents a systematic, simulation-based methodology for quantifying the systemic operational and safety impacts of cyber threats on connected vehicles, evaluating cascading effects across the transport network. Three representative scenarios are examined: (I) telematics-induced sudden braking causing a cascading collision, (II) remote disabling on a motorway (M25) segment, and (III) a compromised Roadside Unit (RSU) spoofing Variable Speed Limit (VSL) and phantom lane closure messages to connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). The results highlight the potential for cascading safety incidents and systemic operational degradation, as evidenced by the defined systemic operational and safety vectors, factors that are insufficiently addressed in the current scope of the ISO/SAE 21434 standard, which primarily focuses on individual vehicle-level threats. The findings underscore the need to incorporate systemic evaluation into existing frameworks to enhance cyber resilience across connected vehicle ecosystems. The framework complements ISO/SAE 21434 by supplying quantitative, reproducible evidence for the impact rating step at a systemic scale, reducing assessor subjectivity and supporting policy and operations, enabling more data-driven evaluations of systemic cyber risks.
published_date 2026-01-01T18:11:26Z
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score 11.08899

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