Journal article 44 views
Guiding principles for modelling-based papers published in Futures
James Derbyshire 
,
Simon Beard,
Chris Groves ,
Zora Kovacic,
Richard Sandford
,
Simon Beard,
Chris Groves ,
Zora Kovacic,
Richard Sandford
Futures, Start page: 103813
Swansea University Author:
Chris Groves
Full text not available from this repository: check for access using links below.
DOI (Published version): 10.1016/j.futures.2026.103813
Abstract
This article offers a critical reflection on the role of mathematical modelling in futures studies. It is written by members of the Futures editorial team and intended to guide authors interested in submitting papers on the formal modelling of futures to the journal. While models are increasingly pr...
| Published in: | Futures |
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| ISSN: | 0016-3287 |
| Published: |
Elsevier BV
2026
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| Online Access: |
Check full text
|
| URI: | https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa71664 |
| Abstract: |
This article offers a critical reflection on the role of mathematical modelling in futures studies. It is written by members of the Futures editorial team and intended to guide authors interested in submitting papers on the formal modelling of futures to the journal. While models are increasingly prominent in shaping visions of the future across science, policy, and society, their use raises fundamental concerns. The paper outlines three key challenges: the limitations of models in handling novelty and surprise, their counter-performative effects in shaping rather than simply anticipating futures, and the epistemological consequences of their dominance in evidence-based policymaking. Drawing on critiques from science and technology studies, economics, and complexity theory, the authors argue for a more reflexive, inclusive, and pluralistic approach to modelling. They propose six guiding principles—transparency, reflexivity, inclusivity, complexity (not complicatedness), relevance over precision, and contribution—to guide submissions to Futures. The goal is to ensure that modelling contributes meaningfully to the field’s core mission: the collective construction of better futures, and to help authors in writing papers that are appropriately reflexive towards the use of models in futures work. |
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| Keywords: |
modelling; uncertainty; futures; complexity |
| College: |
Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences |
| Funders: |
None |
| Start Page: |
103813 |