Guiding principles for modelling-based papers published in Futures

Derbyshire, James; Beard, SJ; Groves, Chris; Kovacic, Zora; Sandford, Richard

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2026.103813

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Guiding principles for modelling-based papers published in Futures

James Derbyshire

, SJ Beard, Chris Groves

, Zora Kovacic, Richard Sandford

Futures, Volume: 179

Swansea University Author: Chris Groves

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DOI (Published version): 10.1016/j.futures.2026.103813

Abstract

This article offers a critical reflection on the role of mathematical modelling in futures studies. It is written by members of the Futures editorial team and intended to guide authors interested in submitting papers on the formal modelling of futures to the journal. While models are increasingly pr...

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Published in:	Futures
ISSN:	0016-3287
Published:	Elsevier BV 2026
Online Access:	Check full text
URI:	https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa71664

first_indexed	2026-03-24T09:09:49Z
last_indexed	2026-04-24T07:12:09Z
id	cronfa71664
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spelling	2026-04-23T14:23:22.1240467 v2 71664 2026-03-24 Guiding principles for modelling-based papers published in Futures 847beea4d3481c4df56d0545a06d7c5b 0000-0002-5873-1119 Chris Groves Chris Groves true false 2026-03-24 SOSS This article offers a critical reflection on the role of mathematical modelling in futures studies. It is written by members of the Futures editorial team and intended to guide authors interested in submitting papers on the formal modelling of futures to the journal. While models are increasingly prominent in shaping visions of the future across science, policy, and society, their use raises fundamental concerns. The paper outlines three key challenges: the limitations of models in handling novelty and surprise, their counter-performative effects in shaping rather than simply anticipating futures, and the epistemological consequences of their dominance in evidence-based policymaking. Drawing on critiques from science and technology studies, economics, and complexity theory, the authors argue for a more reflexive, inclusive, and pluralistic approach to modelling. They propose six guiding principles—transparency, reflexivity, inclusivity, complexity (not complicatedness), relevance over precision, and contribution—to guide submissions to Futures. The goal is to ensure that modelling contributes meaningfully to the field’s core mission: the collective construction of better futures, and to help authors in writing papers that are appropriately reflexive towards the use of models in futures work. Journal Article Futures 179 Elsevier BV 0016-3287 modelling; uncertainty; futures; complexity 1 5 2026 2026-05-01 10.1016/j.futures.2026.103813 COLLEGE NANME Social Sciences School COLLEGE CODE SOSS Swansea University Another institution paid the OA fee None 2026-04-23T14:23:22.1240467 2026-03-24T09:06:28.2955121 Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences School of Social Sciences - Criminology, Sociology and Social Policy James Derbyshire 0000-0002-1505-412x 1 SJ Beard 2 Chris Groves 0000-0002-5873-1119 3 Zora Kovacic 4 Richard Sandford 0000-0001-7022-8674 5 71664__36577__11b57e7bdf3c46caa485601b083a55a2.pdf 71664.VoR.pdf 2026-04-23T14:20:41.6321298 Output 575239 application/pdf Version of Record true © 2026 The Authors. This is an open access article under the CC BY license. true eng http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title	Guiding principles for modelling-based papers published in Futures
spellingShingle	Guiding principles for modelling-based papers published in Futures Chris Groves
title_short	Guiding principles for modelling-based papers published in Futures
title_full	Guiding principles for modelling-based papers published in Futures
title_fullStr	Guiding principles for modelling-based papers published in Futures
title_full_unstemmed	Guiding principles for modelling-based papers published in Futures
title_sort	Guiding principles for modelling-based papers published in Futures
author_id_str_mv	847beea4d3481c4df56d0545a06d7c5b
author_id_fullname_str_mv	847beea4d3481c4df56d0545a06d7c5b_***_Chris Groves
author	Chris Groves
author2	James Derbyshire SJ Beard Chris Groves Zora Kovacic Richard Sandford
format	Journal article
container_title	Futures
container_volume	179
publishDate	2026
institution	Swansea University
issn	0016-3287
doi_str_mv	10.1016/j.futures.2026.103813
publisher	Elsevier BV
college_str	Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
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hierarchy_top_title	Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
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department_str	School of Social Sciences - Criminology, Sociology and Social Policy{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences{{{_:::_}}}School of Social Sciences - Criminology, Sociology and Social Policy
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description	This article offers a critical reflection on the role of mathematical modelling in futures studies. It is written by members of the Futures editorial team and intended to guide authors interested in submitting papers on the formal modelling of futures to the journal. While models are increasingly prominent in shaping visions of the future across science, policy, and society, their use raises fundamental concerns. The paper outlines three key challenges: the limitations of models in handling novelty and surprise, their counter-performative effects in shaping rather than simply anticipating futures, and the epistemological consequences of their dominance in evidence-based policymaking. Drawing on critiques from science and technology studies, economics, and complexity theory, the authors argue for a more reflexive, inclusive, and pluralistic approach to modelling. They propose six guiding principles—transparency, reflexivity, inclusivity, complexity (not complicatedness), relevance over precision, and contribution—to guide submissions to Futures. The goal is to ensure that modelling contributes meaningfully to the field’s core mission: the collective construction of better futures, and to help authors in writing papers that are appropriately reflexive towards the use of models in futures work.
published_date	2026-05-01T06:09:06Z
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Guiding principles for modelling-based papers published in Futures

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