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Guiding principles for modelling-based papers published in Futures

James Derbyshire Orcid Logo, Simon Beard, Chris Groves Orcid Logo, Zora Kovacic, Richard Sandford Orcid Logo

Futures, Start page: 103813

Swansea University Author: Chris Groves Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1016/j.futures.2026.103813

Abstract

This article offers a critical reflection on the role of mathematical modelling in futures studies. It is written by members of the Futures editorial team and intended to guide authors interested in submitting papers on the formal modelling of futures to the journal. While models are increasingly pr...

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Published in: Futures
ISSN: 0016-3287
Published: Elsevier BV 2026
Online Access: Check full text

URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa71664
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last_indexed 2026-03-25T05:31:17Z
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spelling 2026-03-24T09:09:47.3880371 v2 71664 2026-03-24 Guiding principles for modelling-based papers published in Futures 847beea4d3481c4df56d0545a06d7c5b 0000-0002-5873-1119 Chris Groves Chris Groves true false 2026-03-24 SOSS This article offers a critical reflection on the role of mathematical modelling in futures studies. It is written by members of the Futures editorial team and intended to guide authors interested in submitting papers on the formal modelling of futures to the journal. While models are increasingly prominent in shaping visions of the future across science, policy, and society, their use raises fundamental concerns. The paper outlines three key challenges: the limitations of models in handling novelty and surprise, their counter-performative effects in shaping rather than simply anticipating futures, and the epistemological consequences of their dominance in evidence-based policymaking. Drawing on critiques from science and technology studies, economics, and complexity theory, the authors argue for a more reflexive, inclusive, and pluralistic approach to modelling. They propose six guiding principles—transparency, reflexivity, inclusivity, complexity (not complicatedness), relevance over precision, and contribution—to guide submissions to Futures. The goal is to ensure that modelling contributes meaningfully to the field’s core mission: the collective construction of better futures, and to help authors in writing papers that are appropriately reflexive towards the use of models in futures work. Journal Article Futures 103813 Elsevier BV 0016-3287 modelling; uncertainty; futures; complexity 23 3 2026 2026-03-23 10.1016/j.futures.2026.103813 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2026.103813 COLLEGE NANME Social Sciences School COLLEGE CODE SOSS Swansea University Another institution paid the OA fee None 2026-03-24T09:09:47.3880371 2026-03-24T09:06:28.2955121 Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences School of Social Sciences - Criminology, Sociology and Social Policy James Derbyshire 0000-0002-1505-412x 1 Simon Beard 2 Chris Groves 0000-0002-5873-1119 3 Zora Kovacic 4 Richard Sandford 0000-0001-7022-8674 5
title Guiding principles for modelling-based papers published in Futures
spellingShingle Guiding principles for modelling-based papers published in Futures
Chris Groves
title_short Guiding principles for modelling-based papers published in Futures
title_full Guiding principles for modelling-based papers published in Futures
title_fullStr Guiding principles for modelling-based papers published in Futures
title_full_unstemmed Guiding principles for modelling-based papers published in Futures
title_sort Guiding principles for modelling-based papers published in Futures
author_id_str_mv 847beea4d3481c4df56d0545a06d7c5b
author_id_fullname_str_mv 847beea4d3481c4df56d0545a06d7c5b_***_Chris Groves
author Chris Groves
author2 James Derbyshire
Simon Beard
Chris Groves
Zora Kovacic
Richard Sandford
format Journal article
container_title Futures
container_start_page 103813
publishDate 2026
institution Swansea University
issn 0016-3287
doi_str_mv 10.1016/j.futures.2026.103813
publisher Elsevier BV
college_str Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofhumanitiesandsocialsciences
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences
department_str School of Social Sciences - Criminology, Sociology and Social Policy{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences{{{_:::_}}}School of Social Sciences - Criminology, Sociology and Social Policy
url https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2026.103813
document_store_str 0
active_str 0
description This article offers a critical reflection on the role of mathematical modelling in futures studies. It is written by members of the Futures editorial team and intended to guide authors interested in submitting papers on the formal modelling of futures to the journal. While models are increasingly prominent in shaping visions of the future across science, policy, and society, their use raises fundamental concerns. The paper outlines three key challenges: the limitations of models in handling novelty and surprise, their counter-performative effects in shaping rather than simply anticipating futures, and the epistemological consequences of their dominance in evidence-based policymaking. Drawing on critiques from science and technology studies, economics, and complexity theory, the authors argue for a more reflexive, inclusive, and pluralistic approach to modelling. They propose six guiding principles—transparency, reflexivity, inclusivity, complexity (not complicatedness), relevance over precision, and contribution—to guide submissions to Futures. The goal is to ensure that modelling contributes meaningfully to the field’s core mission: the collective construction of better futures, and to help authors in writing papers that are appropriately reflexive towards the use of models in futures work.
published_date 2026-03-23T07:01:23Z
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score 11.100739

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