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Estimates of vaccine effectiveness against measles and mumps: 14 years follow-up of a large cohort in Wales, UK

MALORIE PERRY, Michael Gravenor Orcid Logo, Simon Cottrell, Catherine Moore, Lucy Griffiths Orcid Logo

International Journal of Epidemiology, Volume: 55, Issue: 3, Start page: dyag083

Swansea University Authors: MALORIE PERRY, Michael Gravenor Orcid Logo, Lucy Griffiths Orcid Logo

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DOI (Published version): 10.1093/ije/dyag083

Abstract

Background: Uptake of the measles–mumps–rubella vaccine in Wales is high. However, sporadic measles cases still occur and there are large mumps outbreaks every few years. In this study, the long-term vaccine effectiveness (VE) of vaccines containing measles and mumps is assessed. Methods: A retrospe...

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Published in: International Journal of Epidemiology
ISSN: 0300-5771 1464-3685
Published: Oxford University Press (OUP) 2026
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URI: https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa71879
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However, sporadic measles cases still occur and there are large mumps outbreaks every few years. In this study, the long-term vaccine effectiveness (VE) of vaccines containing measles and mumps is assessed. Methods: A retrospective cohort of 822&#x2009;116 individuals aged 1&#x2013;30&#x2009;years were followed up between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2020. Welsh Demographic Service data were linked to vaccination status from the national vaccination register and primary care records. Outcomes were identified by linking to laboratory confirmations (measles and mumps) and notifications (mumps) data. Complications were sourced from hospital admissions and primary care data. Extended Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios. Results: The adjusted VE (aVE) against confirmed measles after two doses remained high after 15&#x2009;years 99.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) 99.2&#x2013;99.9]. The aVE for confirmed mumps was lower, with decline over time: 93.6% (95% CI 90.2&#x2013;95.8) in the first 5 years after vaccination with dose two and 49.9% (95% CI 34.4&#x2013;61.8) after &#x2265;15&#x2009;years. A third dose of mumps vaccine temporarily increases protection (87.6%, 95% CI 71.7&#x2013;94.6). The aVE estimates for mumps were lower when based on clinical suspicion. The VE was high against complications for both infections. Conclusion: The high, sustained VE for measles strengthens evidence that elimination remains possible and the high VE against mumps complications is encouraging. Evidence for the waning of mumps immunity may be important when deciding to implement a third dose in outbreak settings. 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spelling 2026-06-11T13:48:26.2467623 v2 71879 2026-05-11 Estimates of vaccine effectiveness against measles and mumps: 14 years follow-up of a large cohort in Wales, UK 1ebe1594ad1e94a04ae16cad04aa6294 MALORIE PERRY MALORIE PERRY true false 70a544476ce62ba78502ce463c2500d6 0000-0003-0710-0947 Michael Gravenor Michael Gravenor true false e35ea6ea4b429e812ef204b048131d93 0000-0001-9230-624X Lucy Griffiths Lucy Griffiths true false 2026-05-11 Background: Uptake of the measles–mumps–rubella vaccine in Wales is high. However, sporadic measles cases still occur and there are large mumps outbreaks every few years. In this study, the long-term vaccine effectiveness (VE) of vaccines containing measles and mumps is assessed. Methods: A retrospective cohort of 822 116 individuals aged 1–30 years were followed up between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2020. Welsh Demographic Service data were linked to vaccination status from the national vaccination register and primary care records. Outcomes were identified by linking to laboratory confirmations (measles and mumps) and notifications (mumps) data. Complications were sourced from hospital admissions and primary care data. Extended Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios. Results: The adjusted VE (aVE) against confirmed measles after two doses remained high after 15 years 99.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) 99.2–99.9]. The aVE for confirmed mumps was lower, with decline over time: 93.6% (95% CI 90.2–95.8) in the first 5 years after vaccination with dose two and 49.9% (95% CI 34.4–61.8) after ≥15 years. A third dose of mumps vaccine temporarily increases protection (87.6%, 95% CI 71.7–94.6). The aVE estimates for mumps were lower when based on clinical suspicion. The VE was high against complications for both infections. Conclusion: The high, sustained VE for measles strengthens evidence that elimination remains possible and the high VE against mumps complications is encouraging. Evidence for the waning of mumps immunity may be important when deciding to implement a third dose in outbreak settings. With the increased use of data linkage, studies should be conducted to corroborate these findings. Journal Article International Journal of Epidemiology 55 3 dyag083 Oxford University Press (OUP) 0300-5771 1464-3685 vaccination, immunization, effectiveness, measles, MMR, measles–mumps–rubella vaccine 30 6 2026 2026-06-30 10.1093/ije/dyag083 COLLEGE NANME COLLEGE CODE Swansea University SU Library paid the OA fee (TA Institutional Deal) Swansea University 2026-06-11T13:48:26.2467623 2026-05-11T13:47:36.8606385 Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences Swansea University Medical School - Health Data Science MALORIE PERRY 1 Michael Gravenor 0000-0003-0710-0947 2 Simon Cottrell 3 Catherine Moore 4 Lucy Griffiths 0000-0001-9230-624X 5 71879__36941__4c2fd7faeca74db08c45107b5572a76b.pdf 71879.VOR.pdf 2026-06-11T13:46:30.8998670 Output 1024462 application/pdf Version of Record true © The Author(s) 2026. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. true eng https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
title Estimates of vaccine effectiveness against measles and mumps: 14 years follow-up of a large cohort in Wales, UK
spellingShingle Estimates of vaccine effectiveness against measles and mumps: 14 years follow-up of a large cohort in Wales, UK
MALORIE PERRY
Michael Gravenor
Lucy Griffiths
title_short Estimates of vaccine effectiveness against measles and mumps: 14 years follow-up of a large cohort in Wales, UK
title_full Estimates of vaccine effectiveness against measles and mumps: 14 years follow-up of a large cohort in Wales, UK
title_fullStr Estimates of vaccine effectiveness against measles and mumps: 14 years follow-up of a large cohort in Wales, UK
title_full_unstemmed Estimates of vaccine effectiveness against measles and mumps: 14 years follow-up of a large cohort in Wales, UK
title_sort Estimates of vaccine effectiveness against measles and mumps: 14 years follow-up of a large cohort in Wales, UK
author_id_str_mv 1ebe1594ad1e94a04ae16cad04aa6294
70a544476ce62ba78502ce463c2500d6
e35ea6ea4b429e812ef204b048131d93
author_id_fullname_str_mv 1ebe1594ad1e94a04ae16cad04aa6294_***_MALORIE PERRY
70a544476ce62ba78502ce463c2500d6_***_Michael Gravenor
e35ea6ea4b429e812ef204b048131d93_***_Lucy Griffiths
author MALORIE PERRY
Michael Gravenor
Lucy Griffiths
author2 MALORIE PERRY
Michael Gravenor
Simon Cottrell
Catherine Moore
Lucy Griffiths
format Journal article
container_title International Journal of Epidemiology
container_volume 55
container_issue 3
container_start_page dyag083
publishDate 2026
institution Swansea University
issn 0300-5771
1464-3685
doi_str_mv 10.1093/ije/dyag083
publisher Oxford University Press (OUP)
college_str Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
hierarchytype
hierarchy_top_id facultyofmedicinehealthandlifesciences
hierarchy_top_title Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
hierarchy_parent_id facultyofmedicinehealthandlifesciences
hierarchy_parent_title Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences
department_str Swansea University Medical School - Health Data Science{{{_:::_}}}Faculty of Medicine, Health and Life Sciences{{{_:::_}}}Swansea University Medical School - Health Data Science
document_store_str 1
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description Background: Uptake of the measles–mumps–rubella vaccine in Wales is high. However, sporadic measles cases still occur and there are large mumps outbreaks every few years. In this study, the long-term vaccine effectiveness (VE) of vaccines containing measles and mumps is assessed. Methods: A retrospective cohort of 822 116 individuals aged 1–30 years were followed up between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2020. Welsh Demographic Service data were linked to vaccination status from the national vaccination register and primary care records. Outcomes were identified by linking to laboratory confirmations (measles and mumps) and notifications (mumps) data. Complications were sourced from hospital admissions and primary care data. Extended Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios. Results: The adjusted VE (aVE) against confirmed measles after two doses remained high after 15 years 99.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) 99.2–99.9]. The aVE for confirmed mumps was lower, with decline over time: 93.6% (95% CI 90.2–95.8) in the first 5 years after vaccination with dose two and 49.9% (95% CI 34.4–61.8) after ≥15 years. A third dose of mumps vaccine temporarily increases protection (87.6%, 95% CI 71.7–94.6). The aVE estimates for mumps were lower when based on clinical suspicion. The VE was high against complications for both infections. Conclusion: The high, sustained VE for measles strengthens evidence that elimination remains possible and the high VE against mumps complications is encouraging. Evidence for the waning of mumps immunity may be important when deciding to implement a third dose in outbreak settings. With the increased use of data linkage, studies should be conducted to corroborate these findings.
published_date 2026-06-30T06:39:18Z
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